The development of technology over the past few years has become quite rapid, in many ways - unexpected, and in some ways even frightening. The introduction of artificial intelligence in different areas of life, the development of digital "twins" of real objects and many other events shake the mind and produce an ambiguous impression. Despite the fact that this area is poorly predictable, there are a number of trends that are evident at the moment. Therefore, it can be assumed that they will continue to influence different technological sectors in the coming year. The use of artificial intelligence (AL).
David Shirley expert from Orlando stated last year, that by 2025, all the markets will be owned by those companies that will be actively implementing AI in their work. The use of this tool is expected in areas such as:
- Developing new business models and even ecosystems.
- Improved decision making.
- Research on customer behavioral patterns.
On the one hand, this will allow optimizing business processes. But on the other hand, there are risks that are already voiced by experts in the areas of ethics, politics and technology.
According to Gartner, 59% of companies started to gather the information last year. When they need to develop their own AI strategies. At the same time, some enterprises have advanced further in this issue and are engaged in the implementation of pilot versions of this tool.
According to Shirli, at the present stage humanity is far from creating such an AI of global proportions that could replace a human being. Highly specialized artificial intelligence designed for specific tasks. The expert believes that it is precisely narrow AI that are promising, and ideas about such a global project should be left to researchers and science fiction writers.
However, there is a category of professionals who believe that risks should not be underestimated. Within the framework of public and political discussions on this topic, opinions are expressed that it is necessary to create uniform protocols for testing all intelligent machines. This would check their security level and reduce the risk of negative consequences. Taking into account such polar opinions, it can be assumed that in the future it will be possible to create special institutions that will be focused on the study of machine intelligence.
There are opinions that the greatest risk of AI can be its self-improvement. This process is hypothetically capable of causing technologies to become dangerous for humanity. This may be manifested in the fact that:
- The number of jobs will be reduced.
- People will begin to feel the loss of uniqueness as employees.
Forecasts regarding the future development of AI are very difficult to predict. On the one hand, there is no reason to believe that a technical revolution will occur in 2019. But, it is difficult to assess the impact of today's developments on the future of technologies, since different scenarios are possible. A vivid example of such ambiguity can be called an experiment with the service mathematician Stephen Wolfram. His service ImageIdentify, where photos are recognized by means of artificial intelligence, become the occasion for a lot of ridicule and jokes. Service called the sloth in a hat a man and the image of a dragon - American lobster.
It is difficult to speak with any certainty about the prospects and forecasts for the development of future AI based on the trends of 2019. It is obvious that the use of artificial intelligence in business is aimed at solving highly specialized tasks at the moment.
The so-called “smart” applications, again, will be used on the basis of AI. For example, it can be virtual assistants or assistants for companies. Auxiliary tools are also possible to optimize the operation of the enterprise itself. According to the same Orlando David Searle, such assistants should be used to support the work of the people, not to replace them.
Digital counterparts are representations of objects or systems of the real world in a digital format. For example, we can talk about technology connected to the global network (a refrigerator with Internet access, etc.). According to some forecasts, by 2020 digital doubles may already be in 21 billion devices. This is speaking in the context of the IoT trends.
Source of data from redpixie.com
As for the space outside the IoT, digital twins are developed not only for things. Shirley believes that, over time, digital representations of the vast majority of aspects of our world will be linked to its real objects. The expert himself believes that the future digital twins of people with biometric and medical data, as well as digital twins of entire cities, will allow to carry out any simulations and simulations of various situations.
However, one cannot disregard the fact that such trends carry many risks. Among them:
- Blurring the edges between the real and the virtual world.
- Opportunities for privacy, medical data and other confidential information. First of all, it will not give guarantees of data security. The possibility of hacking and other risks can lead to the vulnerability of people and many other negative consequences.
In view of the above, talking about trends is differentiated. If we are talking about digital doubles of things with the aim of improving the convenience of managing them, here the process is probably more transparent from the point of view of information security than in the second case. A boiler connected to the Network, where you can remotely set the time for water heating, carries fewer threats from the point of view of information security than full-scale digital simulation of reality, including with digital “doubles” of people.
Rethinking the blockchain sphere
In principle, the relevance of this topic is not in doubt, since blockchain trends and projects are very popular with everyone who has understood the industry. However, the direction itself is relatively new. Accordingly, in such circumstances, a year or two ago there was a high risk of the appearance of many fraudulent projects. If we talk about the current time, the scope of cryptocurrency (Ethereum, Bitcoin) turnover is becoming increasingly widespread. It is already difficult to speculate on the financial and computer illiteracy of other business participants. As a result, frankly fraudulent projects begin to quickly collapse, and industry actors are becoming more and more competent.
It can be assumed that in 2019 some large enterprises will announce the launch of projects related to cryptocurrency. Differentiation of trends in this area, the departure of many subjects of fraudsters and the increasing level of systematicity in the blockchain prompts large enterprises to take them seriously.
Several large US banks said they would not support the purchase of cryptocurrency, which their customers would like to carry out using credit cards. As for the prospects of large companies in the blockchain, then, according to expert Paul Brody, the long-term future of this sector depends largely on how such enterprises can adapt to doing business in a common, public infrastructure.
Some analysts see a possible trend in the loosening of the government's policy on cryptocurrency. Initially, Bitcoin was developed in such a way as to eliminate the manipulation of the government as much as possible. Therefore, there is nothing strange in the fact that the attitude towards it has become appropriate. Some countries (including such a giant like China) for example reacted to the technology with outright hostility.
Beijing has banned activities on its territory of cryptocurrency exchanges. Also, the government warned its citizens that operations with cryptocurrencies and investing funds in them are accompanied by a high level of risk. Perhaps some governments will soften the position, considering blockchains a convenient technology to increase the transparency of government and financial services. However, it is too early to talk about this with certainty at the moment, since the tool still has many pitfalls.
Despite the fact that there is an obvious movement in technology, many trends remain unexplored to the end. Similarly, the prospects for using some technologies are unclear, since researchers and analysts themselves make different, sometimes even opposite, predictions.
The introduction of artificial intelligence and digital "twins" of real objects raise the question of the protection of personal data and privacy. There is also the risk of increasing cyber-rate.
Therefore, forecasts are very slim, at the moment. In itself, the use of previously unusual technological innovations could make life easier and streamline business processes. However, there remains an open question about the limits of application of these technologies, which experts in the field of ethics, politics and information security have repeatedly said.